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    A Foresight Scenario Method for Thinking About Complex Sustainable Development Interactions

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    Date
    2016-08-18
    Author
    Glover, Dominic
    Hernandez, Kevin
    Rhydderch, Alun
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    Abstract
    In this article, we describe an innovative foresight approach, which we used to examine the interactions among three themes that are likely to be significant for international development policy and strategy in the coming decades. We adapted existing foresight scenario methods (drivers of change analysis, scenarios, wind-tunnelling) to investigate possible trade-offs, tensions and synergies that may exist among competing international development goals of reducing inequalities, accelerating sustainability and building more inclusive and secure societies. Our method combined foresight methods with programme theory analysis, an approach commonly used in impact evaluation. We describe our approach in detail and discuss its strengths and weaknesses.
    URI
    https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/20.500.12413/12177
    DOI
    10.19088/1968-2016.155
    Is part of series
    IDS Bulletin;474
    Rights holder
    Institute of Development Studies
    Rights details
    http://www.ids.ac.uk/files/dmfile/IDSOpenDocsStandardTermsOfUse.pdf
    http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/uk/
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    • Volume 47. Issue 4 [12]

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