Protest Event Analysis: Grievances, Triggers, and Strategies in Authoritarian and Hybrid Regimes

Abstract

Protests are a feature of both democratic and non-democratic regimes. However, protests in non-democratic regimes have received insufficient academic attention. The nature of protest grievances, strategies, and tactics have been little studied in authoritarian and hybrid regimes. Additionally, triggers of protests are themselves an under-theorised concept. This paper uses protest event data to understand the grievances around which protests take place, which factors trigger protests in authoritarian and hybrid regimes, and the key strategies and tactics collective action actors use when protesting. This study explores these issues using data collected from Bangladesh, Guatemala, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nigeria, and Pakistan. It finds that these protests can be triggered by a wide variety of issues including economic injustice, political representation, and civil rights. Key categories of triggers include violence and policy failures. Strategies used by protesting groups in such settings include forming strategic alliances whilst distancing from some actors, being mindful of confrontation, framing of grievances, and usage of social media.