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    Simulation of Policy Responses and Interventions to Promote Inclusive Recovery from the COVID-19 Crisis in Nigeria

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    Date
    2022-11
    Author
    Mitik Beyene, Lulit
    Adenikinju, Adeola
    Decaluwé, Bernard
    Omoju, Oluwasola E.
    Akande, Abiola
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    Abstract
    The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted huge health and economic effects globally. The Nigerian economy was affected both by external shocks and by domestic measures to stem the pandemic. This study examines the short- and long-term macroeconomic, welfare, and gender effects of a rapid recovery and a prolonged-pandemic scenario and simulates the effects of COVID-related economic policy interventions in Nigeria using a computable general equilibrium model. It also analyses the effects of financing mechanisms for COVID-19 interventions. Using a dynamic, single-country CGE model calibrated to a new 2019 social accounting matrix (SAM), the study finds that, relative to the Rapid-Recovery Scenario, the Prolonged Pandemic Scenario would deepen the negative economic effects and delay the recovery from the economic crisis. The analysis further reveals that regardless of the anticipated scope and duration of the pandemic, women are likely to be more affected than men in terms of job losses and income reduction. The policy interventions initiated by the government would mitigate the economic effects of the pandemic, but do not close this gender gap and the employment effects of the interventions are limited to the short term. The effective administration of COVID-19 vaccines to 40% of the population in 2021 would partially reverse the growth losses if external financing approach is adopted.
    URI
    https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/20.500.12413/17971
    Citation
    Mitik Beyene, L.; Adenikinju, A.; Decaluwé, B.; Omoju, O. and Akande, A. (2023) 'Simulation of Policy Responses and Interventions to Promote Inclusive Recovery from the COVID-19 Crisis in Nigeria', PEP Working Paper 2022-14, Nigeria: Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP)
    Is part of series
    PEP Working Paper;2022-14
    More details
    https://www.pep-net.org/findings/nigeria-government-covid-19-interventions-promote-inclusive-adaptation-and-economic-recovery
    Rights holder
    © 2023 Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP). All rights reserved
    Rights details
    https://www.ids.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Latest_IDSOpenDocs_ExternalDocuments2020.pdf
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    • Supporting essential economic activity - protecting informal businesses, small producers and women workers [143]

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