Ukraine Crisis and Climate and Environment Commitments

Abstract

This rapid literature review collates available literature on the impact of the Ukraine crisis on international climate and environment commitments and considerations. The review draws on a range of sources predominantly blogs, opinion pieces and snap analyses. Given the nature of the conflict, its myriad impacts and uncertain end point, this report should be reviewed with a degree of caution. As the analysis draws heavily on opinion pieces and snap analyses, these will likely be outdated relatively quickly, and some assumptions shown to be flawed. Similarly, as events evolve, some analysis will become redundant.

The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on international climate and environment commitments and considerations will be complex and multifaceted and likely to evolve over time, key themes emerging in this report are as follows: Strategic cooperation or competition of states towards climate-related goals has long been anticipated to drive global political developments in the coming century. The nature of these volatile relationships has a determining factor on the scale, speed and final form of the transition to net zero, impacting politically, environmentally and economically.

Climate change is not an isolated area of strategic concern; rather it should be understood as a pervasive condition with implications for most other areas of interstate competition and cooperation, from global trade to regulatory standards. In this sense, actors have climate-related incentives and imperatives to either cooperate or compete according to specific issue areas such as the economy or national security.