Agricultural Production Amid Conflict: Separating the Effects of Conflict into Shocks and Uncertainty
Arias, María Alejandra
Ibáñez, Ana María
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This paper examines the effect of conflict on agricultural production of small farmers. First, an inter-temporal model of agricultural production is developed in which the impact of conflict is transmitted through violent shocks and uncertainty brought about by conflict. We test the model using a unique household survey applied to 4800 households in four micro-regions of Colombia. Our findings suggest households learn to live amid conflict, albeit at a lower income trajectory. When presence of non-state armed actors prolongs, farmers shift to activities with short-term yields and lower profitability from activities that require high investments. If violence intensifies in regions with presence of non-state armed actors, farmers concentrate on subsistence activities.
CitationMaría Alejandra Arias, Ana María Ibáñez, Andrés Zambrano, Agricultural production amid conflict: Separating the effects of conflict into shocks and uncertainty, World Development, Volume 119, 2019, Pages 165-184, ISSN 0305-750X, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.11.011
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