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dc.contributor.authorScoones, Ian
dc.date.accessioned2020-05-26T14:28:32Z
dc.date.available2020-05-26T14:28:32Z
dc.date.issued2004-07-31
dc.identifier.citationClimate Change and the Challenge of Non-equilibrium Thinkingen
dc.identifier.urihttps://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/handle/20.500.12413/15343
dc.description.abstractClimate change is happening, that much is certain. But in what way? How much? And with what impacts? Complex, non-linear models try to predict trends and patterns, but, inevitably, each model is different, parameters are difficult to estimate and the precise impacts remain uncertain. We live in an uncertain world, one where the knowledge about both likelihoods and outcomes remains uncertain (Stirling 1999). The striving for increased predictive power over the consequences of climate change has yielded results in the past few decades. We clearly know a lot more than we did. But this is not enough to allow climate science to inform people to direct the future.While global circulation models and forecasting approaches will improve with better technology, more empirical data and faster numbercrunching capacities, the nature of climate– ecosystem interactions is such that non-linearity and the complexity of dynamic interactions means that uncertainty will always be present. This article explores the implications of this, drawing lessons from the drylands of Africa, where non-equilibrium thinking has challenged conventional approaches to pastoral development.en
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Research Council (ERC)en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherInstitute of Development Studiesen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesIDS Bulletin;51.1A
dc.rightsThis is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 International licence (CC BY-NC), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original authors and source are credited, any modifications or adaptations are indicated, and the work is not used for commercial purposes. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcodeen
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/en
dc.subjectAgricultureen
dc.titleClimate Change and the Challenge of Non-equilibrium Thinkingen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.rights.holderInstitute of Development Studiesen
dc.identifier.teamRural Futuresen
dc.identifier.doi10.190881968-2020.116
dcterms.dateAccepted2020-05-26
rioxxterms.funderDefault funderen
rioxxterms.identifier.projectDefault projecten
rioxxterms.versionVoRen
rioxxterms.funder.projectd218e59e-c0fb-4cb3-8a07-92a57da72cd1en


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This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 4.0
International licence (CC BY-NC), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original
authors and source are credited, any modifications or adaptations are indicated, and the work is not used for commercial
purposes. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 International licence (CC BY-NC), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original authors and source are credited, any modifications or adaptations are indicated, and the work is not used for commercial purposes. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode