Policy implications of household grain marketing and storage decisions in Zimbabwe
MetadataShow full item record
The emergence of the communal area farmer as an important provider of marketed surplus (Stanning, 1985; Rohrbach, 1986) has had a broad impact on the grain-marketing system at the national, regional, and household level. First, the shift in supply towards communal producers has made it more difficult for the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) to forecast intake. For example, in 1984-85, maize was imported at higher landed cost than the local selling price, because of a forecast shortfall. As it turned out, stocks would have been sufficient as intake was around 50% greater than predicted. While output in both commercial and communal areas exceeded early projection; communal projection was particularly low, relative to actual supply. National forecasts have improved in the last two seasons, but better informed estimates of on-farm retentions, including local sales, are crucial in developing a good forecasting model.