A simple formula for forecasting the Botswana urban population total

Abstract

The aim of the present paper is to establish a simple functional relationship linking urbanisation and economic growth. The paper consequently focuses on the interplay between developments in urban population and basic economic variables, with the latter seen as representative of important forces driving the urbanisation process. The purpose for establishing such a relationship is to produce a short and simple "annexe" to the revised MEMBOT model (forthcoming), capable of providing quantitative estimates illustrating the likely nature of urban population changes under alternative economic scenarios.