An econometric analysis of capital flight from Nigeria : a portfolio approach

Abstract

This study provides measures of real capital flight from Nigeria based on the residual method adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations and trade misinvoicing. The portfolio choice approach is explored, in which the flow of capital is accumulated into stock and expressed as ratios of private stock of real wealth. Econometric analysis of capital flight, based on a portfolio choice framework, was conducted using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method of analysis. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that a number of factors systematically explain the portfolio behaviour of private wealth holders in Nigeria. These factors are consistent with earlier studies and include real GDP growth, real interest rate differential, parallel market exchange rate premium, inflows of debt capital,domestic debt, fiscal deficit and change in inflation rate.