Theories of Change for WFP Afghanistan’s Contribution to the Triple Nexus: Final Report

Prior to the Taliban takeover in August 2021, the World Food Programme (WFP) Afghanistan had been working to see how its strategic outcomes in the 2018–23 Country Strategic Plan (CSP) were aligned with viable peace and development efforts nationally, and to investigate plausible pathways by which its interventions could support broader goals to contribute to the humanitarian–development–peace (triple) nexus. With the Taliban regaining control, these pathways have become less clear and difficult for WFP to make firm strategies. This Theory of Change (TOC) document looks at each of the relevant strategic outcomes from the 2018 CSP in turn (temporarily rolled over as a result of the uncertainty) and proposes theoretical ways in which the interventions can be best aligned with medium- to longer-term goals. Whilst these can no longer be simplistically labelled ‘development’ and ‘peace’, preserving national systems and institutions remains vitally important to ensure minimum humanitarian suffering. The aim of developing these TOCs is to help best align current programming and develop future programming options, as well as better generating evidence on what works. The TOCs are also intended to be a bridge to the next CSP, generating evidence to inform future strategic outcomes and helping the organisation think through realistic contributions to national systems.