The effects of trade, price and macroeconomic policies on returns to wheat research in Kenya

Kenya, which has been traditionally near self-sufficiency in most foodstuffs, faces the imminent danger that rapid population growth may overtake increases in food production capacity. In a situation where the international community and donor agencies have been aiding Kenya both in terms of research development and food-aid, there is the logical pressure to justify research budgets in the face of slow agricultural productivity increases. Wheat is one commodity whose productivity increase has not matched demand. This study analyses the returns to wheat research and the policy factors that may affect those returns. The study applies time series econometric analysis with recent modifications of the error correction models.