Navigating the Green Energy Transition in the MENA Region

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is home to significant oil and gas reserves, with estimates varying between 48.3 percent and 58 percent of the world’s oil reserves1 and over 43 percent of its gas reserves as of 2021. The region has immensely benefited from substantial oil and gas export revenues, which have contributed to major socioeconomic advancements in the entire MENA region, particularly in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. These benefits, however, came at a cost manifested in a lack of economic diversification and lopsided economic structures, as well as a few sociopolitical anomalies such as a slow transition to democracy and a limited private sector role. Capturing, allocating, and distributing the wealth generated from hydrocarbon exports has been the dominant role of the state in the GCC countries.

We review the current primary energy supply and the share of renewable resources in this supply and in electricity generation to set the stage for estimating the potential supply shares of renewable energy in the MENA countries’ supply mix in 2030 and 2050. The main focus is on the expected shares of solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and waste in each of these countries to determine the potential of the energy transition by 2030 as declared in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.