posted on 2024-09-06, 07:20authored byHrushikesh Mallick
The paper examines whether energy use drives economic growth
or vice versa in the Indian context during the period 1970-71 to
2004-05. Utilizing the Granger causality test, the study suggests that it
is the economic growth that fuels more demand for both crude oil and
electricity consumption and it is the only growth of coal consumption
that drives economic growth. When influence of different components
of energy on major two components of economic growth is investigated
with the same causality test, none of the energy components found to be
significantly influencing the two components of economic growth viz.
private consumption and private investment. In contrast, the out of sample
forecasts in the variance decomposition analysis of Vector Autoregression
(VAR) suggests that there could be a bi-directional influence between
electricity consumption and economic growth, other results remaining
unchanged. Therefore, the study yields mixed and contradictory result
as compared to the previous studies in the Indian context. However, on
the basis of application of two econometric tools, the study with little
more conviction could suggest for reducing crude oil and natural gas
consumption at least in the consumption sectors which don't directly
contribute to production or add to the capital formation of the economy,
for achieving higher rate of growth in the economy.
Keywords: Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Granger
Causality, VAR & India
JEL Classifications: C32, E21, O11, Q43
History
Publisher
Centre for Development Studies
Citation
Mallick, Hrushikesh (2007) Does energy consumption fuel economic growth in India? CDS working papers, no.388. Trivandrum: CDS.