The Bottom Billion in Africa: Poverty Trends and Forecasts

Abstract

This rapid literature review explores poverty trends and forecasts in Africa, incorporating new forecasting stemming from the impacts of COVID-19. It draws in large part on a few rigorous studies published in very recent months, as the evolving pandemic and the effects of policies and interventions to address it have required continual updates in economic forecasts. The report focuses on extreme poverty1 and also discusses multidimensional poverty.2 While the literature surveyed provides some information of poverty trends at the sub-regional level in Africa, there is a lack of data on poverty levels and number of poor at the sub-regional level. Data primarily focuses on the continent as a whole or at the country level. Various country level statistics are presented in the Appendices. This report is a companion piece to K4D report no. 901: The bottom billion in Africa: group and sector-based inequalities.